Democratic party in Peru: There is no first without second!

Authors

  • Luis E. Huamanchumo de la Cuba Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería, Lima, Perú
  • Angulo Sánchez Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería, Lima, Perú

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21754/tecnia.v18i1.366

Keywords:

Political candidates, Peruvian political campaign, Probability density function

Abstract

This paper presents a theoretical exercise to obtain the maximum number of candidates to be submitted to presidential elections to avoid a second round. The method used to achieve this goal is to obtain the probability density function of the number of candidates from the average of the ratios of the political preference share, establishing the likelihood that someone to be elected president in the first round on 1%.

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References

[1] Huamanchumo De la Cuba, L., "Propuesta metodológica para un nuevo enfoque en el estudio del proceso electoral peruano mediante encuestas de opinión pública". TECNIA. Vol. 12 N°2, 2002. pp. 9-16, Lima Perú.

[2] Huamanchumo, De la Cuba, L., "Un modelo estadístico para pruebas de producto en el contexto de la ley de congruencia, primacía y persistencia en la teoría de la elección del consumidor". TECNIA. Vol. 11 N° 2. 2001. pp. 47-55, Lima Perú.

[3] Asociación Civil Transparencia., "Resumen de noticias". Accesado el 13 de enero del 2009: http://www.transparencia.org.pe/documentos/ resumen de noticias viernes 13 de enero. pdfLima Perú.

[4] Perú Político., "Análisis, comentarios y noticias sobre sociedad y política en el Perú"., Accesado en enero del 2009: http://www.perupolitico. com/?page_id=243, Lima Perú.

[5] Aragones, E., "Negativity effect and the emergence of ideologies". Journal of Theoretical Politics. Vol. 9 N° 2. 1997. pp. 189-210.

[6] Klein, J. & Ahlumalia, R., "Negativity in the evaluation of political candidates". Journal of Marketing. Vol. 69. 2005. pp. 131-142.

[7] Lee, D., Moretti, E., Butler, M. "Do voters affect or elect policies? Evidence from the U.S. House". Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2004. CXIX. pp. 807-859.

[8] Hogg, R. & Tanis, E., "Probability and Statistical Inference". Prentice-Hall. 6th Edition. 2001. pp. 165-176.

[9] Nguyen, H.T. & Rogers, G.S., "Fundamentals of Mathematical Statistics. Probability for Statistics". Vol. 01. Springer Verlag. 1989. pp. 27-36.

[10] Nguyen, H.T. & Rogers, G.S., Fundamentals of Mathematical Statistics". Statistical Inference. Vol. 02. Springer Verlag. 1989. pp. 2-7. 11. Perú Político, Op.cit.

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Published

2008-06-01

How to Cite

[1]
L. E. Huamanchumo de la Cuba and A. Sánchez, “Democratic party in Peru: There is no first without second!”, TEC, vol. 18, no. 1, Jun. 2008.

Issue

Vol. 18 No. 1 (2008)

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2008 TECNIA

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